Luck?

[Snaggle_Tongue]

I know. But it's like saying that a coin will land heads up because if it didn't the world would end. As far as we can, we can try to estimate what it should be- and why- but that doesn't mean it will.

[Kain Highwind]

Originally Posted by Snaggle_Tongue

So what controls probability?
What says that it WILL be one thing, not the other?

Conditions. In theory, you could predict anything, provided you knew all the conditions.

[Son of Sephiroth]

it would make life really boring though.

there is one thing that can't be predicted at the moment: humanity's free will. if you're above statement was correct everyone would follow a strict destiny that could never change.

[Kain Highwind]

How do you know it doesn't?

How do you know that the very reason that you said that wasn't caused by predetermined genetic conditions?

How, even, do you do define free will?

When it boils down to it, I am right.

[Snaggle_Tongue]

You honestly think it all comes down to genes?
When it boils down to it, there's only half a chance you're right.

[Kain Highwind]

No, I'm entirely right. If you know every single variable, every single condition, and have tested them all to conclusively result in a particular course of action, then you can predict ANYTHING.

This of course, is very unlikely to happen.

Maybe if I put it in context for you. If you imagine the experiment you were shown (probably) to demonstrate the action of probability. The one where you drop balls down a pyramid of protruding nails. Your teacher will get you to note how there is roughly a 50% percent chance of a ball going down the left side or the right, and so on through out the model.

But think about the ball striking the nail for a minute. It's not fate that makes it go either left or right, is it? Maybe the ball was slightly more to the left; perhaps a tiny air current pushed it that way, who knows? But it sure as shit is shit wasn't fate.

[RAGNAROCK]

But what determines why the probabilitys always fall on the more (lucky) people?
I have a general knowledge of the chaos theory, but nothing really certain anyone got a simple laymans terms for chaos theory please.

[Son of Sephiroth]

Chaos theory is basically saying that you can't truely know every variable because you can only do 2 things:
know all the variables that have happened
Or know all the effects of the variables that are happening.

So theres the whole if a butterfly flaps it's wings just in the right place in a rain forest, then the tiny wind current it generates could escalate into a whirlwind that strikes in America.

and before Kain jumps in an says: "you can know all the variables that could be happening" think about it for a second. Even if you managed to have a sensor in EVERY single position feasible to man, (despite the obvious fact there would be no space to start measuring) there would still be a time delay for travelling and processing even if it was so minutely small as to be almost immeasurable. This means your data is permanantly out of date so your prediction isn't as good as it could be. You could know everything in theory, but you know nothing can ever achieve "perfection" and thus you can never have your dream of know ing al variables. you can only know what HAS happened or what IS happening.

PS: Everything is not goverend by your genes by the way or everyone would act like their parents. Which they often don't.

[Hazuki Sensi]

its true in some respects, you can know every variable of an experiment then have the building collapse on you...

[Kain Highwind]

Originally Posted by Son of Sephiroth

and before Kain jumps in an says: "you can know all the variables that could be happening" think about it for a second. Even if you managed to have a sensor in EVERY single position feasible to man, (despite the obvious fact there would be no space to start measuring) there would still be a time delay for travelling and processing even if it was so minutely small as to be almost immeasurable.

Those things you just mentioned are all variables.